Thursday, February 3, 2011

Why a Charlotte Convention Won't Help the Democrats

"President Obama's selection of this Southern city for the 2012 Democratic convention signals he will... fight for the conservative-leaning states that helped him win the White House," the Associated Press reported. DNC Chairman Tim Kaine told The New York Times, "We were very excited about winning North Carolina in 2008. Putting our convention there is a very serious sign that we intend to compete there again." The conversation immediately turned to whether North Carolina, a typically Republican state that President Obama carried by a slim margin in his 2008 landslide victory, could go Democratic in what is likely to be a closer contest next year and what role the convention will play. Influential Democratic blogger Markos Moulitsas of the Daily Kos cheered, "It's clear Obama's team will go all-in to hold North Carolina, and holding the convention in Charlotte is a key component of that strategy."

Obama and the Democrats may well want to compete in North Carolina, and they may even be able to, but holding their convention there will probably have nothing to do with who wins its 15 Electoral College votes. Academic studies have found where political conventions are held has no measurable impact
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